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Issue № | Name | ||
№ 2 (2021) | Sunflower yield forecast using ARIMA time series models | Annotation Sunflower yield forecast using ARIMA time series models
UDC 633.854.78:631.559:51/7 https://doi.org/10.31867/2523-4544/0185 Grain Crops. 2021. 5 (2). 267–274 Chaban V. I. 1, Kliavzo , S. P. 1, Podobed O. U. 1, Chernyh S. A. 2 SE Institute of Grain Crops of NAAS, 14, Volodymyr Vernadskyi St., Dnipro, , 49009, Ukrainy
The forecast of sunflower yield was based on the analysis of the time series of yield data of this crop at its cultivation in the Northern Steppes of Ukraine against the background of natural fertility for 1971-2019. The true average yield value of sunflower ranged from 2.15 ± 0.17 t/ha, the average variation of yield data for the study period was: coefficient of variation – Cv = 24 %, standard deviation – s = 0.516 t/ha. Analysis of the scattering graph of the series showed a tendency to increase the sunflower yield over a given period of time. An adequate linear model with an increasing trend of yield data is obtained. According to the forecast results by this method for the period up to 2025, the sunflower yield is expected at the level of 2.59–2.67 t/ha. Forecasting with ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) was carried out by reduction of the yield data series to a stationary form, which was achieved by first order differentiation D (-1). The selection of the most adaptive model was carried out by varying the values of p and q, according to the type of autocorrelation (ACF) and partial autocorrelation functions (PACF). It was found that the best model is D (-1) ARIMA model: (2,0,0), the stationarity of which was achieved by first order differentiation, the residuals are not autocorrelated and normally distributed, and the regression coefficients corresponded to the values of residual probabilities less (p <0, 05). According to the short-term forecast based on the chosen model, it was found that the maximum of sunflower yield against the background of natural fertility in 2023 should be expected up to 3.56 t/ha. Keywords: forecast, yield, sunflower, model, time series, ARIMA model | |
№ 2 (2021) | Improvement of grain quality of winter wheat in the zone of thermal power station influence | Annotation Improvement of grain quality of winter wheat in the zone of thermal power station influence
UDC 631.95:633. https://doi.org/10.31867/2523-4544/0186 Grain Crops. 2021. 5 (2). 275–281 Viniukov O. O., Konovalenko L. I., Bondareva O. B. Donetsk State Agricultural ResearchStation NAAS, 1, Zakhystnykiv Ukrainy St., Pokrovsk, Donetsk region, 85307, Ukraine
During 2018–2020, we conducted researches in the eastern part of the Northern Steppe of Ukraine, which were aimed to determine the complex influence of winter wheat seed inoculation with biologic polymyxobacterin and plant treatment with growth stimulants on the accumulation of heavy metals in grain under aerogenic emissions by thermal power station. It was established effectiveness of the biologic polymyxobacterin and humic plant growth stimulants, which complex action was aimed to decrease the bioaccumulation of heavy metals in the grain of winter wheat cultivated in high man-made load areas. At 2 km distance from the thermal power station (extremely dangerous level of pollution), the copper content in the samples of wheat grain decreased compared to the control variant by 16.9%, the zinc content – by 19.5%. It was identified a significant decrease in the content of the Class 1 dangerous elements: lead – by 34.9%, cadmium – by 33.3. The winter wheat grain yield of Popeliushka variety was 7.9 t/ha, which was by 0.9 t/ha or 12.9% higher compared to the control. The introduction of seed inoculation and plant growth stimulants allow to reduce the pollution risk of grain products at the crop cultivation in industrial regions with a high level of man-made load on agricultural land. The grain grown in 20 km distance from thermal power station (dangerous level of soil pollution) had the less content of heavy metals: copper and zinc – by 15.3%, lead – by 32.3%, cadmium – by 33.3%. The coefficients of biological absorption of chemical elements, which allow to assess the impact of agro-technological measures on the bioaccumulative processes of heavy metals in man-made load areas, decreased by 1.3 times. Key words: winter wheat, technogenic load, biopreparation, growth stimulant, heavy metals, biological absorption coefficient of heavy metals, yield. | |
№ 2 (2021) | Water consumption by uneven-aged winter wheat plants in arid conditions of the Steppe | Annotation Water consumption by uneven-aged winter wheat plants in arid conditions of the Steppe
UDC 633.11׃631.5 https://doi.org/10.31867/2523-4544/0187 Grain Crops. 2021. 5 (2). 282–294 Romanenko O. L.1, Kushch I. S.1, Agafonova A. V.1, Tenyukh Yu. O.1, Solodushko M. M.2, Usova N. N.3
1 Zaporizhzhia Branch of SE Soils Protection Institute of Ukraine, 94, Doslidna stantsiia Str., Zaporizhzhia, 69031, Ukraine 2 SE Institute of Grain Crops of NAAS, 14, Volodymyr Vernadskyi St., Dnipro, 49027, Ukraine 3 Institute of Oilseed Crops NAAS of Ukraine, 1, Institutska St., Zaporizhzhia district, Zaporizhzhia region, 70417, Ukraine It was established that there are significant changes in hydrothermal indicators over the past thirty years in the south of the Steppe. During the growing seasons of 1963/64–1989/90, the average annual air temperature was 9.6 °С, in 1990/91–2019/20 – 11.3 °C. Average annual precipitation in 1957/58–1989/90 was 456.1 mm, 1990/91–2019/20 – 400.5 mm. Thus, the increase in climate aridity over the last thirty years is obvious: the average annual precipitation has decreased by 55.6 mm, and the average annual air temperature has increased by 1.7 °C. During the growing seasons of 1990/91–2019/20, scientific research found that water consumption by wheat plants after black fallow during the growing season decreased to 2536–2811 m3/ha in the Steppe zone. Moisture was most efficiently consumed by crops at sowing on September 25 (background N40P40K40, seed rate – 4.5 million germinable seeds/ha): total water consumption was 2605 m3/ha, water consumption coefficient – 428 m3/t, grain yield – 6,08 t/ha. According to 28-year-old data, it was found that the available moisture reserves in the 0-10 cm soil layer on black fallow, as the most stable predecessor on water availability of soil, equaled 10.2 mm and ensured almost annual obtainment of full winter wheat seedlings. It was found that the winter wheat plants did not evenly consume moisture during the growing season: in the autumn period – 8.0–19.2 % of the total water consumption, resumption of spring growing season – beginning of stem elongation – 28.3–30.9 %, stem elongation – beginning of heading – 22.1–24.2 %, heading – full ripeness – 30.0–36.9 %. According to the research results, it was proposed the measures to minimize the negative impact of further climate aridity increase by an increase in the autumn-winter precipitation absorption by soil, an improvement of the agrophysical soil properties and its water permeability, the introduction of varieties with a more pronounced xeromorphic structure and an increased level of adaptation to arid conditions of the Steppe zone and resistance to abiotic stress factors. Key words: predecessors, sowing dates, productive moisture reserves in the soil, water consumption, yield, winter wheat, water consumption coefficient. | |
№ 2 (2021) | The yield of Hungarian sainfoin (Onobrychis are-naria L.) in the Right-Bank Steppe of Ukraine. | Annotation The yield of Hungarian sainfoin (Onobrychis are-naria L.) in the Right-Bank Steppe of Ukraine.
UDC 633.366:631.527 https://doi.org/10.31867/2523-4544/0188 Grain Crops. 2021. 5 (2). 295–301 Hrygorieva O. N., Almaieva T. M., UmrykhinN. L. Institute of Agriculture of the Steppe of NAAS,2 Tsentralna St., Sozonivka village, Kropyvnytskyi district, Kirovohrad region, 27602, Ukraine
The results of scientific research conducted in 2017–2019 by the Institute of Agriculture of the Steppe NAAS in the nursery of competitive variety trial under the selection and seed crop rotation with 12 breeding numbers of Hungarian sainfoin are presented. All these samples were analyzed for fresh mass yield, seed yield and dry matter content. It was found that a cultivar No. 12 (breeding material of Kostiantyn variety) provided a stable significant increase at 3.2–12.4 t/ha, or 28.3–23.8 % compared to the Smarahd standard variety during three years study. On average, over the years of research, the dry matter yield of this selection number was maximal. The increase to the indicator of the Smarahd standard variety was 1.31 t/ha, or 12.00 %. The Hungarian sainfoin spread depends largely on the development of new more productive varieties with high quality and at the same time well adapted to different growing conditions. Proper selection of varieties is extremely important to solve the problem of increase in the yield and Hungarian sainfoin resistance to adverse environmental conditions. The research results revealed that seed productivity of cultivar No. 12 (breeding material of Kostiantyn variety) in the competitive variety trial was significantly higher, and the seed yield exceeded the standard variety by 0.31 t/ha, or 26.3 %. According to the research results of competitive variety trial on fodder and seed productivity of selection numbers, which were sown in 2017, it was selected the cultivar No. 12 (breeding material of Kostiantyn variety), which was characterized by high yields of fresh mass and seeds, and increased indicator of dry matter yield. Keywords: sainfoin, selection numbers, cultivar, competitive variety trail, yield, dry matter yield, seeds.
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№ 2 (2021) | Influence density and sowing method of grain sorghum on the formation of assimilation surface and grain productivity of plants | Annotation Influence density and sowing method of grain sorghum on the formation of assimilation surface and grain productivity of plants
UDC 633.17:631.559(292.486)(1-17)(477) https://doi.org/10.31867/2523-4544/0189 Grain Crops. 2021. 5 (2). 302–309 Gyrka A. D., Alieksieiev Ya. V., Sydorenko Yu. Ya., Bochevar O. V. State Enterprise Institute of Grain Crops NAAS, 14, Volodymyr Vernadskyi St., Dnipro, 49009, Ukraine
In the course of conducted researches it was found that the leaf surface area of sorghum crops was directly proportional to the plant density. It was determined that the largest area of the assimilation apparatus forms in the panicle initiation stage. It was found that each increase in plant density by 20 thousand/ha leads to a decrease in the individual leaf surface area of the plant by 8.8–9.0 % (128–137 cm2) relative to the previous plant density. The row-width spacing was no influenced to this indicator. The largest grain weight per the panicle was formed at a plant density of 80 thousand pcs/ha. Crowdedness of crop (by 20 thousand/ha) led to a decrease in this indicator by 4.8–22.0 % compared to the previous one. An increase in agrocenosis density caused to decrease in grain weight and grain size of the panicle, but the 1000 grain weight was relatively stable. The optimal values of the 1000 grain weight in varieties and hybrids were obtained at plant density of 120–140 thousand/ha. The structure of the yield was significantly influenced by the genetic features of sorghum and the sowing density. The influence of the method of sowing was insignificant. On average, over the years of research, the highest yield of grain sorghum was in trials with a row spacing of 45 cm: Prime hybrid – 5.89 t/ha, Dniprovskyi 39 variety – 4.62 t/ha (plant density of 140 thousand/ha) and Vinets variety – 3.70 t/ha (160 thousand/ha). The grain yield of the Prime hybrid at growing with 70 cm row spacing was 5.70–5.71 t/ha at a plant density of 120–140 thousand/ha, respectively. The Dniprovskyi 39 variety had the same yield indicators (4.57 t/ha) at plant density of 120 and 140 thousand/ha. The grain yield of the Vinets variety at a plant density of 160 thousand/ha and a row spacing of 70 cm was 3.83 t/ha. Crowdedness of plants above the specified density caused a decrease in grain productivity. Key words: grain sorghum, plant density, leaf area, individual area of the assimilation apparatus, agrocenosis density, grain productivity.
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№ 2 (2021) | Peas grain production in the Steppe zone of Ukraine and increasing efficiency by the application of biological products | Annotation Peas grain production in the Steppe zone of Ukraine and increasing efficiency by the application of biological products
UDC 633.358:631.811.98 (251.1) (477) https://doi.org/10.31867/2523-4544/0190 Grain Crops. 2021. 5 (2). 310–320 М. Lemishko 1, А. О. Kulyk 2 1 Dnipro State Agrarian and Economic University, 25 Serhii Yefremov St., Dnipro, 49009, Ukraine 2State Enterprise Institute of Grain Crops of NAAS of Ukraine, 14 Volodymyr Vernadskyi St., Dnipro, 49009, Ukraine According to the results of economic analysis, the tendencies of development of grain legume crop production in natural and climatic conditions of the Steppe zone of Ukraine for the period 1990–2020 are established. The place of grain legumes and peas in the structure of sown areas, both in the Steppe zone and Ukraine whole is determined. The dynamics of indicators of harvested areas, yield and gross yield of peas in the Steppe zone for the last five years are analyzed; the reasons of instability of annual gross yield of pea grain and dynamic fluctuations of its productivity are established. The pea grain production efficiency was investigated. Peculiarities of territorial location of pea production in the regions of the Steppe zone of Ukraine were analyzed. According to the economic analysis, the need for measures to improve the efficiency of pea grain production, in particular, the implementation of progressive agricultural measures was established. For chemical load mitigation and ecologization of growing grain legumes crops, it was determined that the primary direction is an application of effective biological products. The article presents the results of the production inspection on compliance of application of biological products and their combinations under the cultivation of peas, which was conducted during 2013–2017 on the areas of the Hryvas farm of Piatykhatky district of Dnipropetrovsk region. The following biological preparations were used: Reacom-C-Beans – for seed incrustation; phosphorus-mobilizing bacteria – for inoculation of sowing material; a three-component mixture of Krystalon, Agat-25K and Aktofit for spraying vegetative pea plants. It was carried out a substantiation of cost standards on production of pea grain, which was grown under the different variants of biological products application, on the basis of process flow diagram of cultivation. According to the results of the production inspection, the most effective variants of biological products application were identified both in terms of productivity and economic efficiency. Key words: peas, production, economic efficiency, biological products, yield, cost, profitability | |
№ 2 (2021) | Economic efficiency of nitrogen feedings for winter wheat cultivation in northen Steppe of Ukraine | Annotation Economic efficiency of nitrogen feedings for winter wheat cultivation in northen Steppe of Ukraine
UDC 633.11"324":631.811.1:338.432 https://doi.org/10.31867/2523-4544/0191 Grain Crops, 2021.5 (2). 321–328 Drumova O. M., Hasanova I. I., Kulyk A. O. State Institution Institute of Grain Crops of National Academy of Agrarian Sciences, 14, VolodymyrVernadskyi Str., Dnipro, 49009, Ukraine
In the northern Steppe of Ukraine at the State Institution Institute of Grain Crops of NAAS for 2016–2019, we studied the influence of plant feeding with different types of nitrogen fertilizers (ammonium nitrate, urea ammonium nitrate mixture (UAN-32), ammonium sulfate) on the economic efficiency of winter wheat cultivation after black fallow and after sunflower. It was established that the lowest cost of one grain ton, the highest net income per hectare and profitability level were in the trial variant where after both predecessors against the background of pre-sowing fertilization (N30P60K30 – after black fallow and N60P60K60 – after sunflower) feeding crops with nitrogen fertilizers was locally applied on two dates: N30 on freeze-thawed soil + N30 at the end of plant tillering stage. The above indicators among the studied varieties of winter wheat, such as Kokhanka (valuable variety), Nyva odeska and Uzhynok (strong varieties), were the best in the Nyva odeska variety, and they achieved at cultivation after black fallow depending on the type of nitrogen fertilizers 2055– 2222 UAH, 28470–30089 UAH per hectare and 200.2–224.6 %, respectively. When growing the same variety after sunflower with nitrogen feedings on two dates, the indicators ranged depending on the fertilizer type: the cost of one grain ton – 2813–2953 UAH, net income – 16802–17821 UAH/ha and profitability level – 125.9–137.1 %. The Uzhynok winter wheat variety after the non-fallow predecessor had the lowest economic indicators and produced lower yield compared to Nyva odeska and Kohanka varieties. It was found that Urea Ammonium Nitrate mixture (UAN-32) fertilizer for nitrogen feedings provided the higher economic cultivation efficiency of all winter wheat varieties, and the more expensive ammonium sulfate had the lower efficiency after both predecessors. Keywords: winterwheat, variety, predecessor, mineral fertilizers, nitrogen feedings, yield, economic efficiency. | |
№ 2 (2021) | Efficiency of the nitrogen fertilizers for maize root fertilizing | Annotation Efficiency of the nitrogen fertilizers for maize root fertilizing
UDC 633.15:631.5 https://doi.org/10.31867/2523-4544/0192 Grain Crops. 2021. 5 (2). 329–335 Moldovan, V. H., Moldovan, Zh. A. Khmelnitskyi State Agricultural Experimental Station of Institute of Feed Research and Agriculture Podillia of NAAS, Samchyky village, Khmelnytskyi district, Khmelnytskyi region, 31182, Ukraine
We carried out research on the efficiency of maize root fertilizing with nitrogen fertilizers in the critical stage of plant development and presented its results, and clarified its influence on the indicators of individual plant productivity and grain yield. It was found that nitrogen fertilizers caused an extension of the growing season of the early-ripening DN Meotyda hybrid by 4–8 days, and the mid-early DB Khotyn hybrid – by 2–9 days depending on the rate and method of fertilizing. At the same time, maize root fertilizing with nitrogen fertilizers provided an increase in the number of productive ears per hybrid plant: DN Meotyda - by 4.3–13.0%, DB Khotyn - by 2.1–5.3% compared to the control. The grain weight per 1 ear of these hybrids increased by 9.1–28.7 and 11.6–36.6%, and the 1000 grain weight - by 4.6–17.6 and 7.3–21.4%, respectively. The grain yield of hybrid plants in the studied variants on root fertilizing with nitrogen fertilizers increased: DN Meotyda - by 1.24–2.47 t/ha, or 17.1–34.0%, DB Khotyn - by 1.41–2, 65 t/ha, or by 18.8–35.3%. It was observed that the indicators of individual productivity and grain yield in each of the studied maize hybrids were the highest when nitrogen application with a rate of N45 in 3–5th and 7–9th leaf stages. The one-time-application of nitrogen fertilizers of N90 in the 7–9th leaf stages was the least effective. The increase in grain yield of the early-ripening DN Meotyda hybrid compared to the control was 1.24 t/ha, or 17.1%, the mid-early – DB Khotyn –1.41 t/ha, or 18.8%. Root fertilizing maize plants with nitrogen fertilizers in the critical development stages both optimizes their nutrition and reduces unproductive nitrogen losses, but also has a positive effect on growth and development, leaf surface area, individual productivity, and provides a significant increase in grain yield. Key words: maize, hybrids, nitrogen fertilizers, fertilizing, individual productivity, yield | |
№ 2 (2021) | Growing energy willow in the conditions of Western Polissia | Annotation Growing energy willow in the conditions of Western Polissia UDC 504:620.9 https://doi.org/10.31867/2523-4544/0193 Grain Crops. 2021. 5 (2). 336–342 Furmanets Yu. S., Furmanets M. H. Institute of Agriculture of Western Polissia of NAAS, 5, Rivnenska St., Shubkiv, Rivne district, Rivne region,35325, Ukraine
The research results of influence of the planting density, fertilization and soil type on the productivity of the energy willow in the conditions of Western Polissia are presented. On average over five years of research in the cultivation of energy willow it was found that the highest yield of dry biomass 102.9 t/ha was obtained on dark gray light loamy soil with a planting density of 20 thousand pcs/ha and fertilizer application at the rate of N60 P200 K200. The lowest yield of dry biomass was at planting density of energy willow of 10 thousand pcs/ha in the variant without fertilizers on dark gray light loamy soil and sod-podzolic cohesive sandy soil – 49.1 and 26.9 t/ha, respectively. The mineral fertilizer application with rate of N60 P100 K100 ensured an increase in the yield of dry biomass by 13.5 and 7.5 t/ha depending on the type of soil. The increase of phosphorus and potash fertilizers rate to 200 kg a.i./ha contributed to an increase in dry mass up to 23.6 and 13.0 t/ha compared to the variant without fertilizers. A similar result was obtained on sod-podzolic cohesive-sandy soil. The lowest indicators were in the variant without fertilizers at the planting density of 10 thousand pcs/ha – 26.9 t/ha, 15 thousand pcs/ha – 30.2 t/ha and 20 thousand рcs/ha – 35.6 t/ha dry biomass. The application of mineral fertilizers with rate of N60P100K100 for all planting densities increased the dry biomass yield to 34.4; 38.5; 45.3 t/ha, respectively. Increase of phosphorus and potash fertilizers rate up to 200 kg a.i./ha against the background of N60 contributed to an increase of energy willow yield up to 39.9 t/ha (with a planting density of 10 thousand pcs/ha), 44.1 t/ha (15 thousand pcs/ha) and 52.3 t/ha (20 thousand pcs/ha) of dry biomass. On average for five years, the application of fertilizer with N60P200K200 rate on dark gray light loamy soil, and at planting density of 20 thousand pcs/ha provided the highest yield of solid biofuel from energy willow of 22.7 t/ha and energy of 363 GJ/ha, while on sod-podzolic cohesive-sandy soil under the same growing conditions the yield of solid biofuel from willow was less by 11.1 t/ha and energy of 178 GJ/ha. Keywords: energy willow, dry biomass, solid biofuels, energy, soil. | |
№ 2 (2021) | Productivity of spring barley in short-term crop rotation of Left-Bank Forest Steppe depending on the fertilization system | Annotation Productivity of spring barley in short-term crop rotation of Left-Bank Forest Steppe depending on the fertilization system
UDC 631.582 https://doi.org/10.31867/2523-4544/0194 Grain Crops. 2021. 5 (2). 343–348 Martyniuk I. V., Boiko P. I., Tsymbal Ya. S. National Scientific Center "Institute of Agriculture NAAS", 2-b Mashinobudivnykiv St., Chabany, Kyevo-Svyatoshynskyi district, Kyiv region, 08162, Ukraine
The article analyzed the research results for 2016–2020 in a long-term stationary experiment, which was established in 2001 on typical chernozems with unstable humidity of the Left Bank Forest-Steppe of Ukraine, namely, on the Panfil research station National Science Center "Institute of Agriculture NAAS". The research results convincingly showed that 4-field crop rotations with 100 % saturation with grain crops (peas–winter wheat–maize for grain–spring barley) under different fertilization systems, such as control (without fertilizers), mineral (with the application of N60P60K60), organo-mineral (NPK + by-products of the predecessor), organic (by-products of the predecessor) fertilization systems, are most rational for highly specialized farms the in this area. The grain yield of spring barley, depending on the fertilization system, was in the range of 4.18–5.54 t/ha. Productivity of crop rotation area in a 4-field crop rotation for harvesting spring barley per 1 ha was: grain – 5.50–7.69 tons, fodder units – 7.48–10.47; digestible protein – 0.60–0.84 tons. The economic efficiency of growing spring barley in short-term crop rotation depending on the fertilization systems is: relatively net profit – 14.2–20.7 thousand UAH/ha, profitability – 122.6–197.0 %. Balanced short-term crop rotations with an optimal set and ratio of crops have been studied and introduced into production. Under market conditions, these crop rotations will ensure the production of competitive products and the preservation of soil fertility. Key words: crop rotation, rotation, fertilizers, productivity, yield, grain, fodder units, digestible protein, economic efficiency. |